If trade were a game of Monopoly, President Trump just bought half the board and raised rent on everyone — again. Deals were announced with Europe, Japan, China (sort of), and even the Philippines, each one stamped with those now-familiar 15% tariffs, as if it’s become the presidential default setting. Meanwhile, Mexico’s tomatoes are taking a 17% hit, India’s not thrilled, and GM just reported a $1.1 billion “thank you” loss from tariff costs. WTO economists are politely waving from the sidelines, trying to remind everyone that tariffs don’t always fix trade deficits — but let’s be honest, no one’s listening. The bottom line? The U.S. is doubling down on aggressive deals, global partners are scrambling to respond, and the tariff train isn’t slowing down anytime soon. And with tariff revenue flowing steadily into Washington’s coffers, the U.S. isn’t just bluffing — it’s profiting. - JR

Provided by: JR Holcomb, Director of Foreign Trade Operations, Alliance Corridor, Inc.

India reviewing Trump’s tariff announcement, will take ‘all steps necessary’

India is reviewing President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff and an unspecified penalty related to its purchases from Russia, while reaffirming its commitment to a fair bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. Although talks had previously shown promise, they’ve stalled over disputes in sectors like auto parts, steel, and agriculture. India’s Commerce Ministry emphasized that it will protect national interests, especially those of farmers and small businesses, citing its recent trade pact with the UK as precedent. U.S. officials, including NEC Director Kevin Hassett, argue that India’s high tariffs have restricted trade and hope India will open its markets. In 2024, the U.S. exported $41.8 billion in goods to India and imported $87.4 billion, highlighting a sizable trade imbalance. Both sides appear motivated to move forward, but key obstacles remain.

WTO economists tackle the impact of tariffs on trade deficits

A new WTO blog post by former chief economist Ralph Ossa and colleagues argues that tariffs are an unreliable tool for correcting trade deficits. While they can shift trade patterns between countries or sectors, they often create unintended consequences—such as increasing deficits with other regions—and carry significant economic costs. Simulations show, for example, that a 40-point tariff on Asian imports could erase North America’s bilateral deficit but reduce GDP by 0.8% and widen its deficit with Europe. A 45-point global tariff could eliminate the overall goods deficit but would cause a services deficit and cut GDP by 1.5%. The WTO economists emphasize that trade imbalances are driven more by macroeconomic forces like fiscal policy, savings, and investment than by trade measures. They conclude that reducing deficits requires coordinated strategies across economic domains, not just tariff-based trade policy.

Trump: Deal with Europe includes 15 percent tariffs on EU goods, zero percent for the U.S.

The U.S. and European Union have reached a trade agreement that imposes 15% tariffs on EU goods, including automobiles, while U.S. goods will face zero tariffs in return, according to President Trump. The deal includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and a substantial, yet-to-be-finalized amount of U.S. military equipment, as well as an additional $600 billion in investment into the U.S. economy. Trump framed the agreement as a major achievement following negotiations in Scotland with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who echoed his remarks by calling it a “huge deal” for transatlantic stability and business. The deal reduces the threat of higher tariffs that had been set to take effect August 1. However, U.S. tariffs on EU steel and aluminum will remain in place, and pharmaceuticals are excluded from the agreement. Additionally, a decision on semiconductor tariffs is expected within two weeks following a Section 232 investigation.

Trump teases ‘confines of a deal with China’

President Trump announced that the U.S. and China have agreed on the “confines” of a trade deal, though he provided no specifics. Upcoming talks in Stockholm between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to further develop the agreement. The Chinese government confirmed the meeting, stating it follows consensus reached in earlier talks between Trump and President Xi and will focus on mutual economic concerns under principles of respect and cooperation. It remains unclear whether USTR Jamieson Greer will participate in the Sweden meetings. Further details may emerge next week.

Trump: Deal with Japan includes 15 percent tariffs, new ag, auto access

President Trump announced a major trade deal with Japan that includes 15% tariffs on Japanese goods and $550 billion in Japanese investment in the U.S., which he claims will create hundreds of thousands of jobs. The agreement also opens Japan’s market to U.S. cars, trucks, rice, and other agricultural products. Trump emphasized that the U.S. will receive 90% of the profits from the investment and touted the deal as historic. The agreement came after threats of 25% tariffs on Japanese imports and follows trade talks in both Osaka and the U.S. While details on how autos and Section 232 tariffs will be handled are still pending, the deal reflects Trump’s push for reciprocal trade and increased foreign investment.

Trump announces trade deal with the Philippines

President Trump announced that the U.S. and the Philippines have finalized a new trade agreement following talks with Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos at the White House. According to Trump, the deal eliminates tariffs on U.S. exports to the Philippines, while the Philippines will face a 19% tariff rate on its exports to the U.S.—down from the previously threatened 30%. Trump praised Marcos as a strong and respected leader and noted that the agreement also includes plans for enhanced military cooperation. Specific details of the deal have not yet been released.

US installs 17% duty on tomatoes from Mexico

The new U.S. tariff on Mexican tomato imports has sparked divided reactions. Mexico’s government criticized the move as unfair, emphasizing the high quality of its tomatoes and expressing hope for a negotiated resolution. U.S. importers like Jaime Chamberlain, who rely heavily on Mexican infrastructure, warned the tariff imposes costly burdens and creates uncertainty in the supply chain. Industry experts argue that other countries can’t match Mexico’s volume, making it difficult to find alternative sources. Meanwhile, supporters like Rep. Vern Buchanan and the Florida Tomato Exchange praised the tariff as a necessary measure to protect American farmers from unfair trade practices. The decision marks the latest chapter in a long history of U.S.-Mexico tomato trade disputes, with five suspension agreements since 1996. The policy highlights the tension between protecting domestic agriculture and preserving vital cross-border trade flows.

GM profit shrinks after $1.1 billion tariff hit

General Motors reported a 35% drop in second-quarter net income, largely due to a $1.1 billion hit from new U.S. automotive tariffs, despite beating analyst expectations and seeing strong global sales. CEO Mary Barra said GM is adapting to shifting trade and tax policies and working to mitigate tariff costs, including reshoring some production to the U.S. Although international performance helped mask domestic weakness, GM maintained its full-year profit forecast but warned of bigger tariff impacts in Q3. The company estimates tariffs will add $4–5 billion in costs this year, with efforts underway to offset 30% of that burden. GM hasn’t broadly raised prices yet but is considering it. EV sales more than doubled year-over-year, but GM is also reinvesting in gas-engine production, signaling continued reliance on traditional vehicles. Trump’s tariffs, softened for North American parts, still affect many of GM’s imported models, especially from South Korea and Mexico.